Primera RFEF side Ourense take Athletic Club in the Copa del Rey last 32, facing a clear step up in class despite home advantage. As the Lions are desperate to make amends for the La Liga defeat to Celta Vigo, we predict a 3-1 away win. The hosts come into this tie in poor form, having won just one of their last ten matches and averaging only 0.3 points per game overall. Defensive issues have been a major concern, with Ourense conceding 2.3 goals per match and failing to keep a single clean sheet this season, while 70% of their games have seen both teams score. There are no fresh injury worries for the home team, but that is unlikely to help them avoid defeat in Thursday's Spanish Cup match.
The Basques, on the other hand, aim to recover from the 2-0 loss to Celta Vigo, with Yuri Berchiche unlikely to feature after picking up a knock in the Balaidos clash. Even so, Ernesto Valverde’s side possess far superior depth and structure. While the Lions have struggled away from home, winning just 17% of road games, they still concede fewer chances on average (xGA 1.16) than Ourense. This should allow the visitors to control proceedings, even if rotation limits their attacking fluidity.
Ourense games average 3.6 goals and given Athletic Bilbao's potential with the Williams brothers up front, we are tempted to bet on Over 2.5 goals, with additional value on Over 3.5 goals and Away Win as the Lions are a more experienced side than the Primera RFEF outfit.
This Copa del Rey match will be played on Thursday 18 December 2025 at 18:00.
What is our Ourense vs Athletic Bilbao prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Ourense 1 - 3 Athletic Bilbao
Ourense vs Athletic Bilbao Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-3
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Ante Budimir @ 162 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 7.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
- Total Corners: 6 - 8 @ 175 Odds
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View OfferOurense Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | llwll | 0.30 |
| Home | lllwl | 0.60 |
| Away | lllll | 0.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| Scored | 1.30 | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 2.30 | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| BTTS | 70% | 80% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.28 | 1.55 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.35 | 1.28 | 1.36 |
Athletic Bilbao Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wlwdl | 1.10 |
| Home | wlwd | 1.75 |
| Away | lldwl | 0.67 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% | 17% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.00 | 1.25 | 2.50 |
| Scored | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 0.75 | 1.83 |
| BTTS | 10% | 0% | 17% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 75% | 33% |
| Failed to Score | 60% | 50% | 67% |
| Expected Goals | 1.42 | 1.50 | 1.37 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.20 | 1.26 | 1.16 |
Ourense vs Athletic Bilbao Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Previous Match Data between these 2 teams are not available
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