Manchester United take on Brighton in an intriguing FA Cup last-64 clash, with Red Devils interim manager Darren Fletcher being eager to bring glory days back to Old Trafford. As Man Utd want this win more than the Seagulls, we predict a 2-1 home triumph. United welcomed Bruno Fernandes back from injury in a 2-2 draw with Burnley, and players like Mount, Yoro, and Zirkzee are pushing for starts. Despite a patchy run—just 1.40 PPG overall and 20% home win rate—United remain a threat offensively, scoring 1.40 goals per home match with 2.02 expected goals, though defensive vulnerabilities persist, conceding 1.40 per game. Their matches often see goals at both ends, reflected in an 80% BTTS rate.
Brighton are high on confidence after a 1-1 draw with Man City, though winger Yankuba Minteh is unlikely to feature. The Seagulls have been relatively consistent, averaging 1.60 PPG at home and 1.00 PPG away, scoring 1.60 home goals while conceding 1.20. Their expected goals stats suggest they create chances efficiently (1.90 home expected goals) but lack cutting edge in finishing. Danny Welbeck is widely expected to return to the starting XI to face his old club.
This tie is likely to be competitive, with United’s depth versus Brighton’s organized structure. Goals at both ends are likely, but the home side holds a slight edge. Therefore, Home Win, Over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets seem tempting.
This FA Cup match will be played on Sunday 11 January 2026 at 16:30.
What is our Manchester United vs Brighton prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Manchester United 2 - 1 Brighton
Manchester United vs Brighton Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 2-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Benjamin Sesko @ 120 Odds
- To be booked: Yankuba Minteh @ 130 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferManchester United Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lwddd | 1.40 |
| Home | lddwd | 1.20 |
| Away | wwldd | 1.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.10 | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| Scored | 1.70 | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| BTTS | 80% | 60% | 100% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 2.07 | 2.02 | 2.12 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.24 | 1.39 | 1.10 |
Brighton Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dldwd | 1.30 |
| Home | wlddw | 1.60 |
| Away | wlldd | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| Scored | 1.40 | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Conceded | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| BTTS | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.63 | 1.90 | 1.35 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.68 | 1.43 | 1.93 |
Manchester United vs Brighton Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Manchester United (55%)
20 Matches
Brighton (40%)
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