League One leaders Cardiff City welcome 7th-placed Luton Town for what promises to be a high-intensity derby. Given Luton's recent struggles on the road, we predict a 1-0 home win. The South Wales outfit enter the clash in excellent form, taking 2.20 PPG overall and an impressive 2.60 PPG at home, where they have won 80% of their matches. Defensively, they look solid, conceding just 0.40 goals per home game while keeping 60% clean sheets. The suspension of key midfielder Ryan Wintle is a blow, but the Bluebirds still boast strong underlying numbers, including 1.94 expected goals at home.
Luton, meanwhile, continue to impress at Kenilworth Road but have been dreadful on their travels, losing all three away matches and failing to score a single away goal in the last five outings. Their away record sits at 0.00 PPG, with an expected goals of only 1.20, highlighting their lack of threat on the road. Still, they earned a morale-boosting 2-1 win over Bradford last weekend, despite injuries to Adebayo and Baptiste.
Historically, this fixture is perfectly balanced (6 wins each), but Cardiff’s home form makes them clear favourites. Given Cardiff's strong home PPG and Luton’s poor away form, our prediction leans toward Home Win, alongside Under 3.5 and Under 2.5 goals as the Bluebirds concede just 0.40 at home an the Hatters struggle to find the net away (0.00).
This League 1 match will be played on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00.
What is our Cardiff vs Luton prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Cardiff 1 - 0 Luton
Cardiff vs Luton Betting Tips
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -700 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -250 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Yousef Salech @ 120 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Yousef Salech @ 400 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Cardiff -0.5 @ -115 Odds
- European Handicap: Luton +2 @ -300 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 2.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
- Double Chance: 12 @ -350 Odds
- Draw No Bet: Cardiff to Win @ -250 Odds
- Half Time/Full Time: Cardiff to Win/Cardiff to Win @ 200 Odds
- Clean Sheet: Cardiff - Yes @ 175 Odds
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View OfferCardiff Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wdwdw | 2.20 |
| Home | wwwdw | 2.60 |
| Away | ddwdw | 1.80 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.50 | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| Scored | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Conceded | 0.70 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| BTTS | 60% | 40% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.67 | 1.94 | 1.40 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.03 | 0.81 | 1.26 |
Luton Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dllww | 1.60 |
| Home | wldww | 2.29 |
| Away | lll | 0.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 71% | 0% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.40 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 2.14 | 0.00 |
| Conceded | 0.90 | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| BTTS | 40% | 57% | 0% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 43% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 0% | 100% |
| Expected Goals | 1.52 | 1.65 | 1.20 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.19 | 1.05 | 1.50 |
Cardiff vs Luton Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Cardiff (50%)
12 Matches
Luton (50%)
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