Turkey and Italy face each other in Nations League round 2, with the hosts aiming to recover from a narrow 1-0 defeat to France. Vincenzo Montella’s men improved considerably after the break and created several opportunities despite missing Kenan Yildiz and Hakan Calhanoglu, who remain sidelined. Arda Guler will be the main player to watch for the hosts, while goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir is suspended and Altay Bayindir is expected to step in. Turkey have won 67% of their last six home matches and conceded just 0.67 goals per game in that spell.
Italy, meanwhile, suffered a frustrating 2-0 defeat to Belgium despite registering 21 attempts in Rome. Roberto Mancini is expected to make changes as the Azzurri look for a response, with Giorgio Scalvini and Davide Frattesi among those pushing for a starting berth. Italy have been considerably stronger away from home, winning five of their last six road games and scoring 2.17 goals per game during that run.
As both Turkey and Italy failed to find the net in their openers, we are tempted to place our bets on Under 2.5 goals, alongside Turkey or Draw as Guler and Co. made life difficult for France in the second half. Additionally, Over 3.5 yellow cards bet is worth considering (electrifying atmosphere at Bursa Ataturk Stadyumu).
This Nations League match will be played on Monday 28 September 2026 at 19:45.
What is our Turkey vs Italy prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Turkey 1 - 1 Italy
Turkey vs Italy Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-1 @ 550 Odds
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes @ -188 Odds
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -600 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -225 Odds
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals @ 110 Odds
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals @ -500 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Pio Esposito @ 175 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Pio Esposito @ 600 Odds
- To be Booked: Baris Yilmaz @ 187 Odds
- European Handicap: Italy +1 @ -250 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
- Double Chance: 1X @ -175 Odds
- Half Time/Full Time: X (Draw)/X (Draw) @ 500 Odds
- Clean Sheet: Italy - No @ -400 Odds
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View OfferTurkey Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wdwwwwllwl | 1.90 |
| Home | wwwlwl | 2.00 |
| Away | dwwl | 1.75 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 67% | 50% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.40 | 2.33 | 2.50 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 1.67 | 1.25 |
| Conceded | 0.90 | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| BTTS | 30% | 17% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 50% | 25% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 33% | 25% |
| Expected Goals | 1.90 | 1.94 | 1.85 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.22 | 1.02 | 1.53 |
Italy Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwwwlwdwwl | 2.20 |
| Home | wlwl | 1.50 |
| Away | wwwdww | 2.67 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% | 83% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.17 |
| Scored | 1.90 | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Conceded | 1.20 | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| BTTS | 40% | 25% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 25% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.88 | 1.92 | 1.85 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.28 | 1.35 | 1.22 |
Turkey vs Italy Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Turkey (0%)
3 Matches
Italy (67%)
Turkey vs Italy Past Results
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