AZ Alkmaar will be looking to secure sixth place when they face already-relegated NAC Breda on the final day of the regular season. Given the huge gap in quality and motivation, we predict a 3-1 home win. AZ's recent form has been fairly steady, averaging 1.60 points per game across the last ten matches with a 40% win rate. AZ Alkmaar are much stronger at home, collecting 2.20 points per game and winning 60% of their fixtures while scoring 2.80 goals per match. Importantly, the Cheese Farmers have no fresh injury concerns, giving them a full squad for this decisive fixture.
NAC Breda come into this match disappointed after failing to secure survival despite a 2-0 win over Heerenveen. Their form remains poor, with just 0.90 points per game across the last ten matches and only one away win in that stretch. On the road the Yellow-Blacks struggle badly, averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Defensive fragility is a key issue, and they have failed to score in 60% of away matches. Centre-back Denis Odoi is also injured, further weakening their back line.
Given AZ's strong home form (60% win rate, 2.80 goals per game) and NAC Breda's lack of motivation, Home Win seems like a sure bet, alongside AZ Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 goals total (69% of H2H meetings have gone over this line).
This Netherlands Eredivisie match will be played on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 13:30.
What is our AZ vs Breda prediction?
Our prediction for this match: AZ 3 - 1 Breda
AZ vs Breda Betting Tips
- European Handicap: AZ -1 @ -138 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 7.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
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View OfferAZ Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wlwlwdwddd | 1.60 |
| Home | wwdwd | 2.20 |
| Away | wlldd | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| Scored | 1.90 | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| BTTS | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 0% | 60% |
| Expected Goals | 1.66 | 1.74 | 1.59 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.24 | 1.14 | 1.34 |
Breda Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wldllddllw | 0.90 |
| Home | wddlw | 1.60 |
| Away | llldl | 0.20 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| Scored | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Conceded | 1.90 | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| BTTS | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 60% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Expected Goals | 1.60 | 1.69 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.40 | 1.18 | 1.62 |
AZ vs Breda Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
AZ (56%)
16 Matches
Breda (31%)
AZ vs Breda Past Results
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