AFS remain stuck at the bottom of the table with just 8 points, and their struggles continue ahead of this crucial home clash with Estrela. Therefore, our prediction firmly points toward a 1-0 away win. The hosts enter the match in poor form, taking only 0.50 points per game overall, and their defensive problems are reflected in the 2.30 goals conceded per match. The absence of key forward Antoine Baroan, who remains sidelined through injury, further limits their attacking threat—especially considering AFS have failed to score in 50% of their recent fixtures. Their underlying metrics tell a similar story, with an xGA of 1.89 suggesting persistent defensive frailties.
Estrela, sitting 12th and five points above the relegation zone, are also inconsistent but appear in better shape. Os Tricolores average 0.90 points per game overall and look more competitive away from home, where they score 1.20 goals per match. However, they arrive without suspended defender Luan Patrick, which weakens a back line already conceding 2.40 goals per away match. Still, Estrela’s higher energy, slightly better cohesion, and superior xG profile (0.92 vs AFS’s 1.21 but with better transitions) make them marginal favourites.
Considering Estrela's better form and AFS' offensive struggles, we believe that there is big value in betting on Estrela, alongside Over 1.5 (67% H2H) and Over 2.5 goals.
This Portugal Primeira Liga match will be played on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:30.
What is our AFS vs Estrela prediction?
Our prediction for this match: AFS 1 - 2 Estrela
AFS vs Estrela Betting Tips
- European Handicap: Nacional -2 @ -200 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
Where Can You Place Bets on AFS vs Estrela?
You can place your bets on AFS vs Estrela at the following bookmakers:
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View OfferAFS Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lllwl | 0.50 |
| Home | dlllw | 0.80 |
| Away | ldlll | 0.20 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.40 | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| Scored | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Conceded | 2.30 | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| BTTS | 40% | 20% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.21 | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.89 | 1.67 | 2.11 |
Estrela Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ldwll | 0.90 |
| Home | ddlwl | 1.00 |
| Away | lwldl | 0.80 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.20 | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| Scored | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Conceded | 2.20 | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| BTTS | 50% | 20% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 0.92 | 1.19 | 0.64 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.78 | 1.59 | 1.98 |
AFS vs Estrela Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
AFS (33%)
3 Matches
Estrela (33%)
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