Alverca aim to recover quickly from their 4-1 defeat to Estoril, but their recent numbers show clear vulnerability, especially in defence. Given Famalicao's ups and downs on the road, our prediction leans toward a 1-1 draw. The newcomers concede 2.20 goals per match overall, including 2.00 at home, while scoring only 0.50 per home game, a worrying imbalance. Their expected goals sits at 1.25, but xGA is higher at 1.51, reflecting a side that struggles to create high-quality chances while allowing too many. Alverca do at least post a 40% BTTS rate and tend to play matches averaging 3.00 total goals, keeping them competitive even in losses. No fresh injury worries for the home side.
The visitors, on the other hand, are inconsistent but slightly stronger statistically. They average 1.40 points per game away, score 1.20 goals per away match, and have a solid clean-sheet rate of 20% on the road. Their expected goals (1.42) remains in line with performance, and a 60% BTTS away rate suggests they rarely go down quietly. Despite losing four of their last five overall, they carry more attacking efficiency than Alverca. Defender Pedro Bondo returns from international duty, though he is not expected to start.
As both teams are involved in high-scoring matches, we are tempted to place our bets on BTTS, alongside Draw and Half-Time Draw.
This Portugal Primeira Liga match will be played on Sunday 4 January 2026 at 20:30.
What is our Alverca vs Famalicao prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Alverca 1 - 1 Famalicao
Alverca vs Famalicao Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Simon Elisor @ 210 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
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View OfferAlverca Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwlll | 0.80 |
| Home | ldwl | 1.00 |
| Away | llwll | 0.67 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.00 | 2.50 | 3.33 |
| Scored | 0.80 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 2.20 | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| BTTS | 40% | 25% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 50% | 33% |
| Expected Goals | 1.14 | 1.25 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.49 | 1.51 | 1.48 |
Famalicao Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lwlll | 1.30 |
| Home | wllwl | 1.20 |
| Away | wwdll | 1.40 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| BTTS | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.53 | 1.64 | 1.42 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.46 | 1.55 | 1.37 |
Alverca vs Famalicao Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Alverca (0%)
1 Matches
Famalicao (100%)
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