Arouca vs Tondela Prediction & Betting Tips | 16/05/2026

Arouca vs Tondela Prediction and Betting Tips | 16 May 2026

Bojan Jovanovic • Football expert

14 May 2026 • 08:10 UTC • 1 min read

Arouca vs Tondela Prediction and Betting Tips 16 May 2026

Arouca and Tondela face off in the final round of the Primeira Liga season with very different motivations. As both sides are likely to adopt an attack-minded approach in Saturday's game, we predict a 2-2 draw. The hosts are comfortably safe in 10th place and have little left to play for, though they have been competitive at home lately, averaging 1.75 goals scored per game across their last four home matches. Defender Jose Fontan is suspended, which could weaken a back line that has managed just two clean sheets in the last 10 outings.

Tondela arrive under far greater pressure as they sit in the relegation zone and desperately need a victory to keep their survival hopes alive. Confidence has improved after a vital 2-0 win over Moreirense, but their overall form remains inconsistent, with only two wins in the last 10 matches. Away from home, Tondela concede an average of 2.25 goals per game, which remains a major concern.

Considering strong BTTS trend in recent H2H meetings, our main prediction leans toward Both Teams to Score. Additionally, Over 2.5 goals and Over 4.5 yellow cards bets seem appealing.

This Portugal Primeira Liga match will be played on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 18:00.

What is our Arouca vs Tondela prediction?

Our prediction for this match: Arouca 2 - 2 Tondela

Arouca vs Tondela Betting Tips

Correct Score: 2-2 @ 550 Odds
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes @ -143 Odds
Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -800 Odds
Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -300 Odds
Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals @ -106 Odds
Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals @ -400 Odds
Anytime Goalscorer: Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka @ 137 Odds
First Goalscorer: Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka @ 450 Odds
Asian Handicap: Tondela +0.5 @ -267 Odds
European Handicap: FC Arouca +1 @ -143 Odds
Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
Shots on Target (Away): Over 4.5
Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
Double Chance: 1X @ -143 Odds
Half Time/Full Time: X (Draw)/X (Draw) @ 450 Odds
Clean Sheet: Tondela - No @ -300 Odds

Where Can You Place Bets on Arouca vs Tondela?

You can place your bets on Arouca vs Tondela at the following bookmakers:

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+

View Offer

Best 🏆

18+. GambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Min £10 debit card deposit. Place a £10+ bet at Evens or greater (2.0) each leg on Sports within 7 days. Opt in for £20 in free bets. Valid for 7 days. Geographical restrictions and T&C’s apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+

View Offer

18+. New customers using Promo code TOP30 only, Min £10/€10/$10 stake, min odds 1.5, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15/$15, free bets credited after settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after the qualifying bet is settled, payment method/player/country restrictions apply. See full terms below. Play responsibly. Gamblingtherapy.org #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+

View Offer

18+ New UK+ROI customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4 x £/€5 free bets (selected sportsbook markets only, valid 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+

View Offer

18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x £/€5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+

View Offer

Arouca Team Form and Stats

Form	Results	Points Per Game
Overall	lllwwlwldw	1.30
Home	lwwd	1.75
Away	llwllw	1.00

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	40%	50%	33%
Average Goals Per Game	2.70	3.25	2.33
Scored	1.30	1.75	1.00
Conceded	1.40	1.50	1.33
BTTS	60%	75%	50%
Clean Sheets	20%	25%	17%
Failed to Score	20%	0%	33%
Expected Goals	1.18	1.22	1.16
Expected Goals Against	1.44	1.58	1.34

Tondela Team Form and Stats

Form	Results	Points Per Game
Overall	dldldlldww	1.00
Home	dlddlw	1.00
Away	lldw	1.00

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	20%	17%	25%
Average Goals Per Game	2.50	2.17	3.00
Scored	0.90	1.00	0.75
Conceded	1.60	1.17	2.25
BTTS	30%	33%	25%
Clean Sheets	30%	33%	25%
Failed to Score	50%	50%	50%
Expected Goals	1.14	1.37	0.78
Expected Goals Against	1.50	1.39	1.66