Estrela aim to claim a major scalp in their first game of 2026, but given Braga's recent metrics, our prediction points toward a 2-1 away win. Os Tricolores return home looking to build on a mixed run of form, having earned 1.25 PPG at home and showing a tendency for high-scoring matches with 2.25 total goals per home game. Their defence remains a concern, conceding in three of their last four, while xGA at home (1.34) hints at recurring structural issues. They do, however, score regularly, producing BTTS in 75% of home fixtures, making them competitive even against stronger sides. Montoya and Otavio are major doubts, while defender Ni remains sidelined.
The Reds, on the other hand, are seen as clear favourites in Saturday's clash, backed by excellent form and strong attacking numbers. They average 3.50 total goals per home game and 2.33 away, while maintaining an impressive 67% away win rate. Braga's defensive record on the road is notable too, conceding only 0.50 goals on average. With xG 1.44 and xGA 1.21 away, they consistently impose control in midfield and the final third. However, Ricardo Horta’s suspension is a significant blow after his red card in the recent 2-2 draw with Benfica.
Given aforementioned statistical data, Away Win seems like the best betting option, with additional value on Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 goals as both sides average 3.5+ goals in recent matches.
This Portugal Primeira Liga match will be played on Saturday 3 January 2026 at 18:00.
What is our Estrela vs Braga prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Estrela 1 - 2 Braga
Estrela vs Braga Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-2
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Fran Navarro @ 140 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferEstrela Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lwldw | 1.10 |
| Home | ldwd | 1.25 |
| Away | lwllw | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 25% | 33% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.60 | 2.25 | 4.50 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.67 |
| Conceded | 2.10 | 1.00 | 2.83 |
| BTTS | 70% | 75% | 67% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 25% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 25% | 33% |
| Expected Goals | 1.25 | 1.66 | 0.97 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.62 | 1.34 | 1.82 |
Braga Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwlwd | 2.30 |
| Home | wwwd | 2.50 |
| Away | wwwlw | 2.17 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 75% | 67% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.33 |
| Scored | 2.00 | 2.25 | 1.83 |
| Conceded | 0.80 | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| BTTS | 50% | 75% | 33% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 25% | 50% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 17% |
| Expected Goals | 1.38 | 1.31 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.14 | 1.05 | 1.21 |
Estrela vs Braga Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Estrela (0%)
4 Matches
Braga (75%)
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