Famalicao return home looking to steady their form and given their fine home record, we predict that they will defeat Estrela 1-0. Famalicao's expected goals numbers are consistent (1.50 xG at home), and despite the absence of important defender Pedro Bondo due to international duty, the hosts generally defend well in front of their fans. They also keep 50% home clean sheets, suggesting strong organization.
Os Tricolores remain far more unpredictable, especially away from home, where they average only 0.60 PPG and concede a concerning 3.00 goals per away match. Their xGA of 1.74 on the road underlines their defensive fragility. While defender Ni is still out injured, he has been sidelined for a long period, so his absence is already factored into their structure. The visitors show some attacking courage, scoring in 60% of their matches, but their poor away displays make them unreliable.
Given Famalicao's fine home metrics and Estrela’s weak away form, our prediction firmly points toward Home Win, with additional value on Under 3.5 and 2.5 goals (75% H2H).
This Portugal Primeira Liga match will be played on Saturday 27 December 2025 at 18:00.
What is our Famalicao vs Estrela prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Famalicao 1 - 0 Estrela
Famalicao vs Estrela Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-0
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): No
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Under 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Simon Elisor @ 137 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 2.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
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View OfferFamalicao Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dlwll | 1.60 |
| Home | wllw | 1.50 |
| Away | wwdll | 1.67 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.83 |
| Scored | 1.60 | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| Conceded | 1.10 | 0.75 | 1.33 |
| BTTS | 40% | 25% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Expected Goals | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.45 | 1.72 | 1.28 |
Estrela Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dlwld | 1.10 |
| Home | wldwd | 1.60 |
| Away | llwll | 0.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.40 | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Conceded | 1.90 | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| BTTS | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.30 | 1.60 | 0.99 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.51 | 1.28 | 1.74 |
Famalicao vs Estrela Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Famalicao (25%)
4 Matches
Estrela (25%)
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