Guimaraes welcome Moreirense in a tightly balanced Minho derby, with both sides showing mixed but competitive form. However, we predict a 1-0 home win as Moreirense are not regarded as good travellers. The hosts have won 40% of their league matches and remain tough to break down at home despite only 1.17 PPG. Their recent 1-0 loss to Porto was encouraging in performance terms, and although defender Rivas Viondi is out, he should not be a major miss. Guimaraes average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded, supported by a solid 1.51 expected goals and 30% clean sheets.
Moreirense arrive with confidence after collecting 1.50 PPG overall, including an impressive 1.75 PPG at home—though their away return drops to 1.33. They will, however, miss influential defender Maracas, scorer of the winner in their last match. The visitors score slightly more than Guimaraes (1.30 goals per game) and concede the same (1.30), but their defensive structure looks steadier with 50% clean sheets.
Historically, Guimarães dominate this matchup with 15 wins from 24 and a strong 63% H2H win rate. Therefore, Home Win is our main betting tip, alongside Under 3.5 and Under 2.5 goals as 58% of their previous meetings have featured 2 or fewer goals.
This Portugal Primeira Liga match will be played on Friday 30 January 2026 at 20:45.
What is our Guimaraes vs Moreirense prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Guimaraes 1 - 0 Moreirense
Guimaraes vs Moreirense Betting Tips
- Anytime Goalscorer: Ejike Opara @ 140 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Ejike Opara @ 400 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Guimaraes -0.5 @ -115 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 2.5
- Total Corners: 6 - 8 @ 175 Odds
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View OfferGuimaraes Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwwll | 1.40 |
| Home | llwwl | 1.17 |
| Away | wdwl | 1.75 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 33% | 50% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.30 | 2.17 | 2.50 |
| Scored | 1.00 | 0.83 | 1.25 |
| Conceded | 1.30 | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 17% | 50% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 50% | 25% |
| Expected Goals | 1.51 | 1.55 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.27 |
Moreirense Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dwwlw | 1.50 |
| Home | dlww | 1.75 |
| Away | lddwl | 1.33 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% | 33% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.67 |
| Scored | 1.30 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Conceded | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| BTTS | 40% | 25% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Expected Goals | 1.11 | 0.84 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.22 | 1.17 | 1.25 |
Guimaraes vs Moreirense Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Guimaraes (63%)
24 Matches
Moreirense (21%)
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