What is our Porto vs Arouca prediction?
Porto
3 - 0
Arouca
Our prediction for this match: Porto 3 - 0 Arouca
Porto vs Arouca Preview
Porto continue their push at the top of the table as they take on Arouca on Matchday 24. As Estoril are hit by suspensions, our prediction firmly points toward a routine 3-0 home win. The Dragons will be without banned midfielder Alan Varela, while Fernandes, Kiwior, Samu, and Perez remain sidelined through injury. Even so, Farioli’s squad depth has kept performances stable, with Porto averaging 2.60 points per game at home and conceding just 0.40 goals at the Estadio do Dragao. Their defensive numbers stand out: 60% clean sheets overall and an xGA of just 1.07 at home.
Os Lobos are in decent form (1.70 PPG), but seriously hit by suspensions: Tiago Esgaio, Lee, and Van Ee are all ruled out. While Arouca average a strong 2.70 total goals per match and have kept 50% clean sheets, their away concessions (1.20 per match) suggest problems against the league leaders. Historically, this matchup is heavily one-sided—Porto have won 15 of the last 18 H2Hs, scoring freely with 72% of meetings going over 2.5 goals.
With Porto’s home dominance and Arouca missing key starters, the Dragons should control the tempo from start to finish. Therefore, Home Win seems like a sure bet, alongside Porto -1.5 and Porto to Win to Nil.
This Portugal Primeira Liga match will be played on Friday, 27 February 2026 at 18:45.
- League
- Portugal Primeira Liga
- Kick-off
- Fri 27 Feb 2026, 18:45UK time
Porto vs Arouca Betting Tips
| Betting Tip | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result | ||
| Correct Score: Porto 3-0 Arouca | 11/2 | |
| Double Chance: 12 | 1/8 | |
| Draw No Bet: FC Porto | 1/16 | |
| Half Time/Full Time: FC Porto / FC Porto | 8/11 | |
| Asian Handicap: Estoril +0.25 | 5/8 | |
| European Handicap: FC Arouca +4 | 1/8 | |
| Player bets | ||
| Anytime Goalscorer: Oskar Pietuszewski | 1/1 | |
| First Goalscorer: Oskar Pietuszewski | 7/2 | |
| Goals | ||
| Both Teams to Score: No | 4/9 | |
| Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals | 2/9 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals | 3/4 | |
| Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals | 2/5 | |
| Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals | 1/7 | |
| FC Porto Clean Sheet: Yes | 4/7 | |
| Corners | ||
| Total Corners: 9 - 11 | 13/8 | |
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View OfferPorto Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwwdwwldww | 2.30 |
| Home | wwwdw | 2.60 |
| Away | wwdlw | 2.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 1.90 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Scored | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 0.50 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| BTTS | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.47 | 1.34 | 1.59 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.09 |
Arouca Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wddlwlwwlw | 1.70 |
| Home | wdlww | 2.00 |
| Away | dlwwl | 1.40 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Conceded | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| BTTS | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.29 | 1.12 | 1.47 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.07 | 1.15 | 0.98 |
Porto vs Arouca Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Porto (83%)
18 Matches
Arouca (11%)
Porto vs Arouca Past Results
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