Tondela head into the first game of 2026 in worrying home form, having collected just 0.20 PPG at their own stadium and scoring only 0.20 goals per home match. Therefore, we predict that they will play our a 1-1 draw with Arouca on Matchday 17. Tondela have been struggling up front badly, failing to score in 80% of home games, while defensive numbers (1.60 conceded at home) keep them under persistent pressure. Their expected goals profile (1.42 for, 1.75 against at home) confirms they are regularly outplayed. Sphephelo Sithole is away on international duty and his absence affects midfield balance, while Remy Vita’s absence is less impactful.
Arouca have not been convincing either, but they show slightly more attacking life than Tondela, especially with 1.17 goals scored on average away from home. Their away form is poor (lllld), yet their expected goals against (1.79) suggests they concede but do not completely collapse. They also produce BTTS in 67% of away matches, reflecting an open style. Defender Amadou Dante is at AFCON but Arouca have cover in his position.
Given Arouca’s away trends and H2H (75% BTTS), we believe that there is big value in betting on Both Teams to Score, with additional value on Arouca or Draw and Over 1.5 goals (88% H2H).
This Portugal Primeira Liga match will be played on Saturday 3 January 2026 at 15:30.
What is our Tondela vs Arouca prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Tondela 1 - 1 Arouca
Tondela vs Arouca Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Jeffrey Rodriguez @ 160 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
- Total Corners: 6 - 8 @ 175 Odds
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View OfferTondela Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dwlll | 0.80 |
| Home | lldll | 0.20 |
| Away | wldwl | 1.40 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 0% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| Scored | 1.00 | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| Conceded | 1.70 | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| BTTS | 40% | 20% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 50% | 80% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.31 | 1.42 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.62 | 1.75 | 1.49 |
Arouca Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | llwdd | 0.80 |
| Home | llwd | 1.00 |
| Away | lllld | 0.67 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.30 | 2.75 | 3.67 |
| Scored | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.17 |
| Conceded | 2.30 | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| BTTS | 50% | 25% | 67% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 50% | 33% |
| Expected Goals | 1.15 | 1.44 | 1.01 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.56 | 1.10 | 1.79 |
Tondela vs Arouca Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Tondela (25%)
8 Matches
Arouca (50%)
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