Aston Villa host Leeds United in Premier League round 27 looking to recover from a 3-1 FA Cup defeat to Newcastle. Given Villa's excellent home record, we predict a 2-1 home win. The Villans will be without backup goalkeeper Marco Bizot, but it is unlikely to affect their starting XI. The Villa Park outfit have averaged 1.70 points per game this season, with home PPG at 1.20, scoring 1.00 goal per home match while conceding 1.40. Their expected goals of 1.88 at home shows they create decent scoring opportunities, and BTTS has occurred in 40% of their home games, reflecting a balanced approach.
Leeds United, on the other hand, travel to Birmingham with forward Noah Okafor doubtful after a minor FA Cup injury. Leeds’ form is mixed, collecting 1.40 PPG overall and 1.17 PPG away, scoring 1.67 goals per away game while conceding 1.50, with BTTS in 83% of away fixtures. Their expected goals away of 1.46 suggests potential to breach Villa’s defence.
Given Villa’s home advantage and Leeds’ inconsistency, we believe that there is big value in betting on Unai Emery's troops, alongside BTTS and Over 2.5 goals (Villa 40%, Leeds 83% BTTS away).
This Premier League match will be played on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:00.
What is our Aston Villa vs Leeds United prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Aston Villa 2 - 1 Leeds United
Aston Villa vs Leeds United Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 2-1 @ 850 Odds
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes @ -150 Odds
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -600 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -225 Odds
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals @ -138 Odds
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals @ -450 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins @ 130 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins @ 450 Odds
- To be Booked: Jayden Bogle @ 225 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Aston Villa -0.5 @ -130 Odds
- European Handicap: Aston Villa +1 @ -500 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 7.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
- Double Chance: 12 @ -350 Odds
- Draw No Bet: Aston Villa to Win @ -300 Odds
- Half Time/Full Time: Aston Villa to Win/Aston Villa to Win @ 187 Odds
- Clean Sheet: Aston Villa - No @ -225 Odds
Where Can You Place Bets on Aston Villa vs Leeds United?
You can place your bets on Aston Villa vs Leeds United at the following bookmakers:
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18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x £/€5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+
View OfferAston Villa Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wldwl | 1.70 |
| Home | lwlwl | 1.20 |
| Away | dwwwd | 2.20 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.00 | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| Scored | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Conceded | 0.90 | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| BTTS | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 20% | 60% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.70 | 1.88 | 1.52 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.48 | 1.23 | 1.73 |
Leeds United Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dlwdd | 1.40 |
| Home | dwlw | 1.75 |
| Away | lwddd | 1.17 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% | 17% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.00 | 2.75 | 3.17 |
| Scored | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.67 |
| Conceded | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| BTTS | 70% | 50% | 83% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 25% | 17% |
| Expected Goals | 1.36 | 1.21 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.61 | 1.46 | 1.71 |
Aston Villa vs Leeds United Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Aston Villa (38%)
13 Matches
Leeds United (23%)
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