Newcastle United aim to extend their winning run at home as they host Leeds United at St James’ Park. As the Whites are not regarded as good travellers, our prediction points toward a 3-1 home win. Jacob Murphy is doubtful for the Magpies after picking up a knock in the 2-0 win over Crystal Palace, but Harvey Barnes is ready to step in. Eddie Howe’s side have been reliable at home, earning 2.20 points per game with a 60% win rate and scoring 2.00 goals per match. Their attacking output is backed by an expected goals of 1.76, while defensively they concede just 1.20 goals on average. Summer signing Nick Woltemade returns to the starting XI, which definitely supports our betting angle.
Leeds welcome back Ethan Ampadu from suspension, and the squad remains injury-free after a hard-fought 1-1 draw with Manchester United. However, their away form is a major concern. Daniel Farke’s team have failed to win on the road all season, averaging only 0.60 points per game and scoring just 1.00 away goal. Their xGA of 1.59 suggests vulnerability against higher-quality attacks, which Newcastle certainly possess.
Considering Newcastle's excellent home record and Leeds' struggles on the road, Home Win is our main betting tip for this Premier League encounter, alongside Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 goals (both teams’ matches average 3.10 and 3.30 goals respectively).
This Premier League match will be played on Wednesday 7 January 2026 at 20:15.
What is our Newcastle vs Leeds United prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Newcastle 3 - 1 Leeds United
Newcastle vs Leeds United Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 3-1
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Nick Woltemade @ 120 Odds
- To be booked: Jayden Bogle @ 200 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 7.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 160 Odds
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View OfferNewcastle Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wdlww | 1.80 |
| Home | dwwdw | 2.20 |
| Away | wdllw | 1.40 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Scored | 1.90 | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Conceded | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| BTTS | 70% | 80% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 0% | 40% |
| Expected Goals | 1.70 | 1.76 | 1.64 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.20 | 1.08 | 1.32 |
Leeds United Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dwddd | 1.10 |
| Home | lwdwd | 1.60 |
| Away | llddd | 0.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.30 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| Scored | 1.70 | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| BTTS | 90% | 100% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.47 | 1.61 | 1.32 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.50 | 1.42 | 1.59 |
Newcastle vs Leeds United Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Newcastle (30%)
10 Matches
Leeds United (20%)
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