What is our Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid prediction?
Rayo Vallecano
0 - 1
Atletico Madrid
Our prediction for this match: Rayo Vallecano 0 - 1 Atletico Madrid
Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid Preview
Rayo Vallecano enter the Madrid derby in 18th place and under pressure. As Atletico are eager to get back on course following a 1-0 loss to Real Betis, we predict a 1-0 away win. Rayo's home form offers some hope: they average 1.6 points per game at home and have kept 40% clean sheets in Vallecas. However, the double suspension of Pathe Ciss and Pep Chavarría significantly weakens their defensive structure. Los Vallecanos have also conceded 1.7 goals per match overall, a worrying sign against a top-four opponent.
Atletico Madrid suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to Real Betis, but their away form remains strong, averaging 1.8 points per away game and conceding only 0.4 goals per away match. Simeone’s side also hold a dominant H2H advantage, winning 18 of the last 23 meetings. With an expected goals (xG) average of 1.85, Atleti consistently create high-value chances, while Rayo often struggle to break down organized defenses, failing to score in 40% of matches.
Given Atletico Madrid's massive H2H dominance and strong away record, there is big value in betting on Away Win. Additionally, Under 2.5 goals bet should be considered (Atleti concede very little; Rayo often struggle up front).
This Primera Division match will be played on Sunday, 15 February 2026 at 15:15.
- League
- Primera Division
- Kick-off
- Sun 15 Feb 2026, 15:15UK time
Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid Betting Tips
| Betting Tip | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Match result | ||
| Double Chance: 12 | 2/7 | |
| Draw No Bet: Atletico Madrid | 3/10 | |
| Half Time/Full Time: Atletico Madrid / Atletico Madrid | 15/8 | |
| Asian Handicap: Atletico Madrid -0.5 | 33/40 | |
| European Handicap: Rayo Vallecano +2 | 1/3 | |
| Player bets | ||
| Anytime Goalscorer: Alexander Sorloth | 11/10 | |
| First Goalscorer: Alexander Sorloth | 7/2 | |
| To be Booked: Gerard Gumbau | 2/1 | |
| Goals | ||
| Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals | 2/7 | |
| Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals | 1/10 | |
| Atletico Madrid Clean Sheet: Yes | 5/4 | |
| Corners | ||
| Total Corners: 9 - 11 | 8/5 | |
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18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x £/€5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+
View OfferRayo Vallecano Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dwldwwllll | 1.10 |
| Home | dwdwl | 1.60 |
| Away | lwlll | 0.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.80 | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| Scored | 1.10 | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Conceded | 1.70 | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| BTTS | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 20% | 60% |
| Expected Goals | 1.60 | 1.69 | 1.51 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.42 | 1.23 | 1.61 |
Atletico Madrid Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dlwwdwldwl | 1.50 |
| Home | lwwll | 1.20 |
| Away | dwddw | 1.80 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Scored | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Conceded | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| BTTS | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.85 | 2.28 | 1.41 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.09 | 0.96 | 1.22 |
Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Rayo Vallecano (4%)
23 Matches
Atletico Madrid (78%)
Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid Past Results
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