Real Madrid return to the Bernabéu looking to keep pace with league-leaders Barcelona, sitting just one point behind them. As Real Madrid have been showing signs of improvement of late, we predict that they will defeat their local rival Rayo Vallecano 3-1. Alvaro Arbeloa welcomes Brahim Diaz back from international duty, though the defensive trio of Militao, Rudiger, and Alexander-Arnold remains unavailable. Even so, Madrid’s back line impressed in the recent 2–0 win at Villarreal, and at home they’ve been dominant—winning 100% of their matches, scoring 3.75 goals per game, and conceding just 0.50. With an imposing home expected goals of 2.37, their attack continues to overwhelm opponents.
Rayo Vallecano sit 16th and head into the local derby following a 3–1 defeat to Osasuna, though they do regain defender Nobel Mendy from suspension. Their form has dipped with three straight losses, and their away numbers are worrying: they concede 2.20 goals per away game and keep 0% clean sheets on the road. Rayo have also failed to score in 60% of away matches, suggesting they may struggle to test Madrid consistently. H2H history reinforces the gap, with Madrid winning 15 of the last 21 meetings.
As Real Madrid have been averaging 4.25 goals per home game of late, we are tempted to bet on Home Win, alongside Over 2.5 goals and Kylian Mbappe to Score.
This Primera Division match will be played on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 13:00.
What is our Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Real Madrid 3 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Betting Tips
- Anytime Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe @ -275 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe @ 220 Odds
- To be Booked: Gerard Gumbau @ 140 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Real Madrid -1.5 @ -143 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 7.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferReal Madrid Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | llwww | 2.40 |
| Home | wwww | 3.00 |
| Away | wwllw | 2.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 100% | 67% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 4.00 | 4.25 | 3.83 |
| Scored | 2.80 | 3.75 | 2.17 |
| Conceded | 1.20 | 0.50 | 1.67 |
| BTTS | 70% | 50% | 83% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to Score | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 2.08 | 2.37 | 1.89 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.52 |
Rayo Vallecano Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwlll | 1.40 |
| Home | dwdwl | 1.60 |
| Away | wlwll | 1.20 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.80 | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| Scored | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 1.60 | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| BTTS | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 40% | 20% | 60% |
| Expected Goals | 1.57 | 1.69 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.31 | 1.23 | 1.40 |
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Real Madrid (71%)
21 Matches
Rayo Vallecano (10%)
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Club Brugge
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Newcastle
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Galatasaray
