Burgos vs Ceuta Prediction & Betting Tips | 11/09/2026

Burgos vs Ceuta Prediction and Betting Tips | 11 September 2026

Bojan Jovanovic • Football expert

10 September 2026 • 23:13 UTC • 1 min read

Burgos vs Ceuta Prediction and Betting Tips 11 September 2026

Burgos will be eager to turn their strong underlying numbers into three points when they take on Ceuta in La Liga 2 round 5. Sergio Francisco's men are winless in their last three after a goalless draw with Oviedo, despite recording 2.37 xG against ten men. Burgos have won 40% of their last 10 home matches, averaging 1.20 goals, while keeping clean sheets in 40%. Vencedor and Karrikaburu are both pushing for a starting berth.

Ceuta, meanwhile, are in worrying form, having lost their last four matches in all competitions and failing to score in each of their previous three. Defensive frailties have also been evident, with the visitors conceding 2.50 goals per away game across their last 10. Their away xG stands at just 0.57, suggesting another difficult attacking display could be on the cards. Albert Caparros is suspended after his red card against Celta Vigo B.

As Ceuta have lost four straight matches and concede 2.50 goals per away game, we are tempted to bet on Home Win, alongside Burgos to Win to Nil and Under 3.5 goals (Burgos have seen only 1.70 total goals per game in their last 10).

This Segunda Division match will be played on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:30.

What is our Burgos vs Ceuta prediction?

Our prediction for this match: Burgos 1 - 0 Ceuta

Burgos vs Ceuta Betting Tips

Correct Score: 1-0 @ 550 Odds
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): No @ -138 Odds
Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -1000 Odds
Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Under 3.5 Goals @ -334 Odds
Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals @ -125 Odds
Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Under 1.5 Goals @ 240 Odds
Anytime Goalscorer: Jon Karrikaburu @ 150 Odds
First Goalscorer: Jon Karrikaburu @ 450 Odds
Asian Handicap: Burgos -0.5 @ -167 Odds
European Handicap: Burgos +1 @ -800 Odds
Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
Shots on Target (Total): Over 2.5
Total Corners: 6 - 8 @ 160 Odds
Double Chance: 12 @ -350 Odds
Draw No Bet: Burgos to Win @ -500 Odds
Half Time/Full Time: Burgos to Win/Burgos to Win @ 140 Odds
Clean Sheet: Burgos - Yes @ 100 Odds

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Burgos Team Form and Stats

Form	Results	Points Per Game
Overall	ddwwwlwldd	1.60
Home	dwlwd	1.60
Away	dwwld	1.60

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	40%	40%	40%
Average Goals Per Game	1.70	2.60	0.80
Scored	0.90	1.20	0.60
Conceded	0.80	1.40	0.20
BTTS	20%	40%	0%
Clean Sheets	60%	40%	80%
Failed to Score	50%	40%	60%
Expected Goals	1.23	1.50	1.02
Expected Goals Against	1.61	1.75	1.49

Ceuta Team Form and Stats

Form	Results	Points Per Game
Overall	dlwwlwllll	1.00
Home	dlwwll	1.17
Away	wlll	0.75

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	30%	33%	25%
Average Goals Per Game	2.90	2.50	3.50
Scored	0.90	0.83	1.00
Conceded	2.00	1.67	2.50
BTTS	50%	50%	50%
Clean Sheets	20%	17%	25%
Failed to Score	30%	33%	25%
Expected Goals	1.10	1.45	0.57
Expected Goals Against	1.52	1.39	1.72