Avellino aim to return to winning ways following a 2-2 draw with Palermo, but with Bari turning their Stadio San Nicola into a real fortress, we predict a 1-0 home win. Bari's numbers are noticeably better than on the road, collecting 1.40 PPG at home compared to just 0.60 away. Despite inconsistent recent results, Bari remain defensively competitive, keeping 40% clean sheets and conceding only 1.20 goals per home match. Their attacking output also improves significantly at home—averaging 1.20 goals with an xG of 1.10—suggesting they create enough to threaten Avellino’s shaky back line. For this match, Bari are without Mehdi Dorval, who is away on international duty, but there are no new injury concerns.
I Lupi, meanwhile, have with similar issues in the final third, scoring just 0.90 goals per game overall and failing to score in 50% of their matches. Their defensive numbers are even more worrying: conceding 2.00 goals per match and allowing an xGA of 1.78, which often forces them into reactive football. Away from home they average only 0.40 goals scored, highlighting their struggle to create chances on the road. They also face a significant setback as key defender Alessandro Fontanarosa is suspended.
Given Bari's stronger home metrics and Avellino’s weak away attack, we are tempted to place our bets on Home Win. Additionally Under 3.5 and Under 2.5 goals markets seem interesting as both sides average under one goal scored per match recently.
This Serie B match will be played on Saturday 27 December 2025 at 18:30.
What is our Bari vs Avellino prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Bari 1 - 0 Avellino
Bari vs Avellino Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-0
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): No
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Under 1.5 Goals
- Goalscorer: Christian Gytkjaer @ 187 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 2.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
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View OfferBari Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ldddl | 1.00 |
| Home | wwldl | 1.40 |
| Away | ldldd | 0.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.30 | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| Scored | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Conceded | 1.50 | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| BTTS | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Failed to Score | 30% | 0% | 60% |
| Expected Goals | 1.08 | 1.10 | 1.05 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.57 | 1.69 | 1.46 |
Avellino Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | lwdld | 0.90 |
| Home | lwldd | 1.00 |
| Away | ldlwl | 0.80 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.90 | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| Scored | 0.90 | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Conceded | 2.00 | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| BTTS | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Expected Goals | 1.12 | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.78 | 1.88 | 1.68 |
Bari vs Avellino Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Bari (53%)
19 Matches
Avellino (26%)
Genoa
Cagliari
Huesca
Cordoba
Juventus
Cremonese
Liverpool
Barnsley
Sevilla
Celta Vigo
PSG
Paris FC
