Napoli look to maintain their Scudetto push as they return home after a painful 3-0 defeat to Juventus. Given their fine home record, we predict that the reigning champions will defeat Fiorentina 1-0 on Matchday 23. The good news is the return of Romelu Lukaku, although the absences of De Bruyne, Neres and Politano continue to limit attacking depth. Rudi Garcia’s side have been strong at the Maradona, collecting 2.20 PPG, winning 60% of matches and keeping an impressive 80% clean-sheet rate. Napoli concede just 0.40 goals per home game, while posting 1.40 xG consistently across all venues.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, sinking into 18th, arrive after a 1–3 Coppa Italia loss to Como. Roberto Piccoli is unlikely to feature, and Moise Kean remains a major doubt—weakening the Viola’s already inconsistent attack. Their overall form stands at 1.10 PPG, and while they average 2.80 total goals per match, they keep clean sheets in only 10% of outings. Away from home they score just 1.00 per game and fail to score in 50% of their trips.
Historically, Napoli hold the upper hand in this fixture with 21 wins from 39, though Fiorentina often stay competitive (51% BTTS). The Neapolitans are a real force to be reckoned with at home and given Fiorentina's potential absences up front, Home Win should be considered, alongside Under 3.5 goals and Napoli to Win to Nil (allow 0.40 at home).
This Serie A match will be played on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 17:00.
What is our Napoli vs Fiorentina prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Napoli 1 - 0 Fiorentina
Napoli vs Fiorentina Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 1-0
- Both Teams To Score (BTTS): No
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Under 1.5 Goals
- Anytime Goalscorer: Romelu Lukaku @ 150 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Romelu Lukaku @ 450 Odds
- To be booked: Rolando Mandragora @ 160 Odds
- Asian Handicap: Napoli 0 @ -267 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 2.5
- Total Corners: 6 - 8 @ 175 Odds
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View OfferNapoli Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ddwdl | 1.90 |
| Home | wwddw | 2.20 |
| Away | wwddl | 1.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.20 | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| Scored | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Conceded | 0.80 | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| BTTS | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Clean Sheets | 60% | 80% | 40% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.57 | 1.58 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.11 | 1.22 | 0.99 |
Fiorentina Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ddwll | 1.10 |
| Home | wwdll | 1.17 |
| Away | lldw | 1.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 33% | 25% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.80 | 3.17 | 2.25 |
| Scored | 1.40 | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| BTTS | 70% | 83% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 10% | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 0% | 50% |
| Expected Goals | 1.70 | 1.86 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.46 | 1.27 | 1.74 |
Napoli vs Fiorentina Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Napoli (54%)
39 Matches
Fiorentina (21%)
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