Italy return to action in the World Cup playoffs looking to recover from a heavy 4-1 defeat to Norway, but their overall form remains strong with six wins from their last nine competitive matches and an impressive 2.11 xG average. Given the huge gap in quality between the two sides, we predict a 2-0 home win. The Azzurri have won 60% of their recent home fixtures, scoring 2.4 goals per match and keeping 60% clean sheets. Gianluca Mancini is doubtful, while Federico Chiesa surprisingly makes the squad despite shaky club form.
Northern Ireland travel to Bergamo with renewed squad depth as Shea Charles, Alistair McCann, Brodie Spencer, and Pierce Charles all return from injury. However, their away record is a major concern: just 0.60 points per game, conceding 2.40 goals per match, and keeping 0% clean sheets in their last five on the road. Offensively they struggle too, averaging only 1.2 goals away from home with a low 0.88 xG.
As Northern Ireland have failed to score in both past H2Hs and struggle away, we are tempted to bet on Italy to Win to Nil, alongside Under 3.5 goals and Italy/Italy.
This World Cup 2026 match will be played on Thursday 26 March 2026 at 19:45.
What is our Italy vs Northern Ireland prediction?
Our prediction for this match: Italy 2 - 0 Northern Ireland
Italy vs Northern Ireland Betting Tips
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 4.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Under 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 4.5
Where Can You Place Bets on Italy vs Northern Ireland?
You can place your bets on Italy vs Northern Ireland at the following bookmakers:
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18+ New UK+ROI Customers only. Certain deposit methods & bet types excl. Min first £/€5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 to get 4x £/€5 free bets. Free bets available to use on selected sportsbook markets only. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. Restrictions + T&Cs apply. #Ad / GambleAware.org / 18+
View OfferItaly Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | ldlwwwwwwl | 1.90 |
| Home | lwwwl | 1.80 |
| Away | dlwww | 2.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 4.20 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| Scored | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| Conceded | 1.70 | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| BTTS | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| Clean Sheets | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 2.11 | 2.33 | 1.89 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.15 | 1.22 | 1.09 |
Northern Ireland Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | dllwwlwllw | 1.30 |
| Home | dwwlw | 2.00 |
| Away | llwll | 0.60 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.50 | 1.40 | 3.60 |
| Scored | 1.10 | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Conceded | 1.40 | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| BTTS | 50% | 20% | 80% |
| Clean Sheets | 30% | 60% | 0% |
| Failed to Score | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Expected Goals | 1.00 | 1.11 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.31 | 1.08 | 1.54 |
Italy vs Northern Ireland Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
Italy (50%)
2 Matches
Northern Ireland (0%)
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