Weekly EFL Cup Betting Tips
Below you’ll find our weekly English Football League (EFL) Cup tips across the most relevant football betting markets, including Correct Score, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), Over/Under 2.5 Goals, Total Shots on Target, and Match Result.
EFL Cup Betting Tips
EFL Cup Outrights Tips for 2025/2026 Season
Outright betting in the EFL Cup focuses on predicting long-term outcomes across the tournament rather than single matches. Instead of wagering on the result of one tie, punters look at who will win the trophy, or to reach the semi-finals. These futures markets are available before the tournament begins and remain active throughout, with prices shifting as favourites advance or get knocked out.
Unlike match markets settled in ninety minutes, outright stakes stay locked in for months, so assessing squad depth, fixture congestion, and managerial attitude toward the competition is crucial. The main EFL outright markets include To Win Outright and To Reach The Semi-Finals.
Our expert forecasts for the 2025/26 EFL Cup season are provided below.
Who is most likely to win the EFL Cup?
Liverpool and Chelsea lead the way as the two strongest contenders to win the 2025/26 EFL Cup. Liverpool are priced at 4/1 (20%) by most major bookmakers, reflecting their attacking reinforcements and history of domestic cup success, while Chelsea are quoted at 6/1 (14.3%). Chelsea’s odds are lower than Liverpool’s, but we believe their squad depth and influx of new attacking talent give them a strong chance of competing for the EFL Cup.
More detail on the 2 main candidates to win the EFL Cup is given below.
Who is most likely to win the EFL Cup?
Liverpool and Chelsea lead the way as the two strongest contenders to win the 2025/26 EFL Cup. Liverpool are priced at 4/1 (20%) by most major bookmakers, reflecting their attacking reinforcements and history of domestic cup success, while Chelsea are quoted at 6/1 (14.3%). Chelsea’s odds are lower than Liverpool’s, but we believe their squad depth and influx of new attacking talent give them a strong chance of competing for the EFL Cup.
More detail on the 2 main candidates to win the EFL Cup this season is given below.
- Liverpool (4/1, 20%). Having reached the finals in 2024–2025, Liverpool are our favourite to win the EFL Cup this season. They arrive with a refreshed front line thanks to Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, and Alexander Isak, adding progression through the thirds, width, and finishing options across the attack. Under Arne Slot, Liverpool has combined intensity with smarter rotation in domestic cups. The team’s balance between experienced defenders, creative midfielders, and versatile attackers positions them strongly in knockout settings, making them the strongest betting pick to lift the EFL Cup.
- Chelsea (6/1, 14.3%). Chelsea provide an intriguing alternative to Liverpool in the EFL Cup race. Their squad depth has been bolstered by Liam Delap, João Pedro, Estêvão, and Alejandro Garnacho, adding different attacking profiles and options off the bench. In cup competitions, Chelsea’s ability to rotate without losing threat is vital, and their recruitment suggests they now possess that flexibility. With Champions League commitments demanding high-level performance twice a week, Chelsea’s ability to spread minutes across a deeper squad becomes crucial. This combination of rotation capacity and attacking variety makes them a highly credible contender for an EFL Cup victory this season.
Who is most likely to reach the semi-finals in the EFL Cup?
The four leading contenders for EFL Cup semi-final places in 2025/26 include Liverpool, Newcastle United, Chelsea, and Everton, based on recruitment, squad stability, and tactical outlook.
More information about the 4 top contenders to reach the semi-finals in the EFL Cup follow below.
- Liverpool. Liverpool are a front-runner to reach the EFL Cup semi-finals thanks to a blend of strong signings and proven managerial quality. Summer arrivals, including Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, and Alexander Isak, boost Liverpool’s options in transition, wide attack, and finishing capacity. Under Arne Slot, Liverpool demonstrated the ability to compete on multiple fronts last season. With a deep attacking unit and defensive balance, they are well equipped for the demands of successive knockout rounds, making them a serious EFL Cup semi-final candidate.
- Newcastle United. As defending champions, Newcastle United are another contender aiming for a deep EFL Cup semi-final spot. The club added Yoane Wissa, Anthony Elanga, Nick Woltemade, and Jacob Ramsey this summer, aiming to refresh their attacking and midfield options. While their defence remains a vital foundation in cup ties, the new signings provide Newcastle with the firepower to overcome lower-division resistance and grind through close fixtures. Their blend of solidity and upgraded attacking threat gives Newcastle United credible EFL Cup semi-final potential this season.
- Chelsea. Chelsea’s claim to a semi-final spot in the EFL tournament lies in their sheer squad depth and continued investment. The additions of Liam Delap, João Pedro, Estêvão, and Alejandro Garnacho give them multiple attacking profiles to rotate as the competition intensifies. In a format where games are settled on the day, having high-quality backup options is crucial, and Chelsea now possess that flexibility. They remain wildcards, but their resources and rotation capability make them viable EFL Cup semi-final challengers.
- Everton. Everton’s path to the EFL Cup semi-finals is built on stability and cohesion. With their core squad largely unchanged and David Moyes in charge, the club’s familiarity and consistency become assets in knockout football. When squads rotate, Everton’s strong internal understanding is their best tool to outlast more disrupted teams in later rounds. While lacking star-level upgrades, their foundation and experienced manager give them a shot at pushing into the EFL Cup semi-finals.
EFL Cup Betting Stats and Data
Officially known as the Carabao Cup for sponsorship reasons, the EFL Cup has been played since 1960 and is the second most prestigious domestic knockout competition in English football after the FA Cup. To further enhance our EFL Cup tips and betting advice, FootballPredictions.com draws on competition records that track how often home or away teams progress, the typical number of goals scored in ties, and how often both teams find the net. We use these patterns to form the statistical base for our weekly previews across the most popular EFL Cup betting markets.
EFL Cup Stats (2025/2026)
| Team Type |
Average Goals Scored |
| Home Teams |
1.33 |
| Away Teams |
1.48 |
| Total (Combined) |
2.81 |
32 min/Goal
(253 Goals in 90 matches)
48% Clean Sheets
(43 times out of 90 matches)
54% Both Teams Scored
(49 times out of 90 matches)
| Outcome (Full-Time Result) |
% of Matches |
| Home Win |
39% |
| Draw |
22% |
| Away Win |
39% |
| Goals |
% of Matches Over |
| Over 0.5 |
98% |
| Over 1.5 |
83% |
| Over 2.5 |
51% |
| Over 3.5 |
28% |
| Over 4.5 |
13% |
| Goals |
% of Matches Under |
| Under 0.5 |
2% |
| Under 1.5 |
17% |
| Under 2.5 |
49% |
| Under 3.5 |
71% |
| Under 4.5 |
87% |
| League Cup Match Stats (2025/2026) |
| Shots Per Match |
25.18 |
| Shots / Match (Home) |
12.91 |
| Shots / Match (Away) |
12.27 |
| Fouls Per Match |
21.57 |
| Fouls / Match (Home) |
10.3 |
| Fouls / Match (Away) |
11.27 |
| Offsides Per Match |
3.6 |
| Players Participated |
2054 |
EFL Cup Results
| Date |
Match |
| 16/12/2025, 20:00 |
Cardiff City |
1 - 3 |
Chelsea |
| 17/12/2025, 19:30 |
Manchester City |
2 - 0 |
Brentford |
| 17/12/2025, 20:15 |
Newcastle United |
2 - 1 |
Fulham |
| 23/12/2025, 20:00 |
Arsenal |
1 - 1 |
Crystal Palace |
EFL Cup Fixtures
| Date |
Match |
| 13/01/2026, 20:00 |
Newcastle United |
0 - 2 |
Manchester City |
| 14/01/2026, 20:00 |
Chelsea |
2 - 3 |
Arsenal |
| 03/02/2026, 20:00 |
Arsenal |
- |
Chelsea |
| 04/02/2026, 20:00 |
Manchester City |
- |
Newcastle United |
What are EFL Cup Predictions?
EFL Cup predictions are expert forecasts of outcomes in England’s main midweek knockout competition. Unlike league forecasts that focus on points over a long season, EFL Cup predictions look at one-off ties where progress is decided in a single evening. Forecasts highlight which clubs are best placed to advance through each round, who has the squad depth to reach the final at Wembley, and which football betting markets offer the strongest statistical backing. The most common betting markets for the EFL Cup include Home Win, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and Over or Under goals.
What makes the EFL Cup distinctive is the mix of top Premier League sides, Championship contenders, and clubs from the lower divisions competing in the same bracket. Managers often rotate their squads, which creates opportunities for upsets when ambitious underdogs meet elite opponents. At FootballPredictions.com, analysts study form, head-to-head records, and tactical setups while factoring in the challenges of fixture congestion. The result is a set of EFL Cup football predictions that balance statistical evidence with the unique dynamics of knockout football. For bettors, comparisons between FA Cup predictions and EFL Cup forecasts are common, since both tournaments share the single-elimination format but differ in prestige, scheduling, and the range of clubs involved.
How are EFL Cup Predictions determined?
At FootballPredictions.com, our analysts shape EFL Cup predictions through a five-step process that blends competition context, data analysis, squad news, venue effects, and betting market evaluation.
The five steps behind our EFL Cup predictions are as follows.
- Setting the tie context and cup rules
- Assessing form and underlying data
- Reviewing squad availability and rotation
- Factoring in venue, travel, and conditions
- Comparing projections with bookmaker odds
- Setting the tie context and cup rules. The first step in EFL Cup predictions is understanding the format of the competition, because it shapes how clubs approach each round. All 92 teams from the Premier League and Football League take part, with League Two sides entering in the early rounds and top-flight clubs joining later depending on European commitments. Matches are single-leg knockouts until the semi-finals, which remain two-legged before the Wembley final in March. These rules influence how managers rotate squads, weigh priorities, and respond to incentives, all of which must be factored into accurate EFL Cup football predictions.
- Assessing form and underlying data. The next stage in EFL Cup predictions is measuring form and reliable metrics. This assessment includes expected goals, chance creation, defensive stability, and home versus away performance. The EFL Cup often produces early upsets when Premier League teams rotate heavily, so predictions adjust for the higher strike rate of lower-division clubs at home. By filtering short-term streaks from long-term trends, EFL Cup football predictions highlight which sides are genuinely positioned to progress and which results are misleading.
- Reviewing squad availability and rotation. The third step in making accurate EFL Cup predictions is reviewing squad availability and rotation. Rotation is more pronounced here than in league football, as Premier League clubs often rest starters during busy fixture periods and rely on younger or fringe players. Championship and League One sides, on the other hand, tend to field their strongest elevens. Injuries, suspensions, and transfer activity all influence squad depth, so EFL Cup predictions must weigh who is likely to start and how bench quality shifts the balance of a tie.
- Factoring in venue, travel, and conditions. The fourth step in making accurate EFL Cup predictions is factoring in venue, travel, and playing conditions. Smaller grounds can level the field, especially under floodlights in midweek ties, while long trips between northern and southern clubs add fatigue. Seasonal weather, such as autumn rain or winter cold, further affects match tempo. Accurate EFL forecasts must integrate these logistical and environmental details to reflect the true dynamics of each fixture.
- Comparing projections with bookmaker odds. The final step ensures EFL Cup predictions are actionable. Probabilities based on squad strength, form, and context are compared to bookmaker odds, with mismatches flagged as value opportunities. This step identifies overreactions to short-term form or mispriced rotation risks, making our professional football predictions practical for punters who want evidence-based tips backed by market logic.
When are EFL Cup Predictions released?
Our EFL Cup predictions are published on Mondays at 13:00 London time, giving readers enough time to review analysis ahead of the midweek fixtures. Since most EFL Cup ties are scheduled for Tuesdays and Wednesdays, this release window ensures forecasts are prepared with the latest weekend information still fresh. In cases where matches are rescheduled or drawn later in the competition, our updated EFL Cup predictions are released once dates are confirmed. This approach guarantees forecasts remain accurate and timely, helping fans and bettors prepare with confidence before each round.
What are the most appealing Betting Markets to bet on for the EFL Cup?
The most appealing betting markets for the EFL Cup are Home Wins, Both Teams to Score (BTTS), and Over 2.5 Goals. These three markets stand out because they reflect the competition’s unique mix of strong home advantage, frequent high-scoring games, and the openness of fixtures involving clubs from different divisions. Bettors are attracted to them not only for their reliability but also because seasonal and club-level statistics provide clear evidence that these markets consistently deliver value.
More information on the 3 best markets for betting on the EFL Cup is given below.
- Home Wins. The Home Wins market is extremely appealing for EFL Cup bettors due to the consistent advantage shown by home sides across different editions of the tournament. In 2020/21, home wins made up 40% of results compared to 38% away wins and 22% draws, while in 2024/25 the figure rose to 48%, clearly outpacing both draws (16%) and away wins (35%). Across the last five seasons of the Cup, only in 2021/22 did away victories dominate, with 52% compared to just 28% home wins. Such dominance at home highlights why the Home Win market remains a standout choice for EFL Cup punters.
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS). The BTTS market is one of the best for EFL punters because the Cup often produces wide-open games between Premier League clubs and ambitious lower-league sides. The frequency of BTTS outcomes ranged from 43% in 2020/21 to 59% in 2023/24, showing its reliability across different seasons. Middlesbrough in 2023/24 recorded a 57% BTTS rate during their run, while Liverpool were even more remarkable with 83% in 2023/24 and 67% in 2024/25. Everton in 2023/24 also posted a very high 75% BTTS rate, reflecting how even strong teams tend to both score and concede in this competition. These trends make BTTS a consistent value market for EFL Cup bettors.
- Over 2.5 Goals. The Over 2.5 market is extremely appealing for EFL Cup bettors due to the competition’s consistently high scoring averages. Across the last five seasons, goals per game have ranged between 2.59 and 3.24, with Over 2.5 Goals hitting in roughly half of all fixtures (49% in 2020/21, 52% in 2021/22, 48% in 2022/23, and 52% in both 2023/24 and 2024/25). At a club level, the appeal is even clearer. Arsenal in 2021/22 had 83% of their matches finish Over 2.5, while Brighton recorded 100% that same season. In 2024/25, Liverpool delivered 83% Over 2.5 outcomes, while Arsenal once again registered 80%. These striking percentages show that the EFL Cup regularly produces high-scoring sides, making Over 2.5 Goals one of the most rewarding betting markets for punters.
A table summarising key outcomes across the last five EFL Cup seasons is given below.
| Season |
Home Wins |
Draws |
Away Wins |
BTTS |
Over 2.5 Goals |
Avg. Goals / Match |
| 2020/21 |
40% |
22% |
38% |
43% |
49% |
2.77 |
| 2021/22 |
28% |
20% |
52% |
45% |
52% |
2.77 |
| 2022/23 |
43% |
14% |
43% |
40% |
48% |
2.53 |
| 2023/24 |
39% |
21% |
40% |
59% |
52% |
2.95 |
| 2024/25 |
48% |
16% |
35% |
54% |
52% |
3.24 |
EFL Cup Season Guide
Currently known as the Carabao Cup, the EFL Cup is England’s secondary knockout competition open to all 92 clubs from the Premier League and the English Football League. The 2025/26 EFL Cup season is its 66th edition. The tournament runs from late July through March, with Wembley Stadium hosting the final. The winners of the EFL Cup secure qualification for the play-off round of the 2026/27 UEFA Conference League. Newcastle United enter as defending champions after defeating Liverpool in the 2024/25 final.
What Is the Format of the EFL Cup 2025/26 Season?
The format of the EFL Cup 2025/26 consists of a straight knockout competition across seven rounds, but with staggered entry points depending on league level. A preliminary round has been reintroduced this season to account for nine Premier League sides competing in Europe. Barnet and Oldham Athletic were promoted from the National League and entered the preliminary round. They joined Accrington Stanley and Newport County, who finished 21st and 22nd in League Two, to reduce the field before Round One.
Round One of the EFL Cup involves 70 clubs from League Two, League One, and the Championship, joined by the two winners of the preliminary ties. Round Two introduces the 11 Premier League clubs not playing in Europe, while the nine European qualifiers enter at Round Three. From that stage, the EFL tournament progresses through Round Four, Round Five, the two-legged semi-finals, and the final at Wembley. EFL ties are settled on the night, with extra time and penalties used when necessary.
What are the Start & End Dates for EFL Cup 2025/26?
The 2025/26 EFL Cup runs from the preliminary round in the week commencing 4 August 2025 to the final on Sunday 22 March 2026. Round One ties were played in mid-August, followed by Round Two at the end of the month. Round Three took place across split weeks in mid- and late September to accommodate clubs playing in the Champions League and Europa League. Round Four is scheduled for the final week of October, Round Five for mid-December, the semi-finals for January and early February, and the EFL competition concludes with the Wembley final in March.
How are EFL Cup Fixtures built up?
EFL Cup fixtures are built through seeded, regionalised draws in the early rounds before moving to an open national draw in later stages. In the preliminary and first rounds, clubs are divided into northern and southern sections to minimise travel, and pairings are drawn at random within those regions. Championship, League One, and League Two clubs enter the EFL competition at this stage, with ties usually played in quick succession across a single week.
In Round Two of the EFL Tournament, the winners join the 11 Premier League clubs not involved in Europe. The nine European entrants are seeded into Round Three, and conditions are applied to avoid fixture clashes between Champions League and Europa League participants. From the fourth round onward, the EFL draw is no longer regionalised, creating the potential for high-profile Premier League clashes as well as deep runs by lower-tier teams such as Grimsby Town, who reached Round Four in 2025/26. Each round of the EFL Cup is drawn live, with home advantage decided by the order of the draw, and all ties are played to a conclusion on the night.
Other Leagues We Cover
Stay on top of Europe’s biggest football competitions with our expert predictions for other leagues and tournaments including the ones below.
- FA Cup Predictions. Our FA Cup predictions focus on England’s oldest knockout tournament, following key fixtures and potential upsets.
- Premier League Predictions. Premier League forecasts analyse England’s top division with insights into form, goals, and title races.
- Championship Predictions. Our Championship coverage tracks promotion battles and teams chasing a place in the Premier League.
- Europa League Predictions. Europa League forecasts feature top European clubs competing for continental trophies and qualification spots.
- Champions League Predictions. Our Champions League coverage delivers expert forecasts across Europe’s most prestigious club competition.
