All eyes will be on Stade de France when France take on Italy in the Nations League derby, with Les Bleus aiming to keep their 100% record intact following back-to-back 1-0 wins over Turkey and Belgium. Kylian Mbappe remains in the recovery room, but Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise should both be recalled to the starting XI, while Roma midfielder Manu Kone is pushing for a start as well after he was rested against Belgium. Zinedine Zidane's men have won 67% of their last six home matches, scoring an impressive 2.50 goals per game.
Italy, on the other hand, quickly bounced back from a 2-0 loss to Belgium by rolling over Turkey 4-1 in round two. Roberto Mancini is unlikely to make changes to the starting XI, with Bryan Cristante, Manuel Locatelli, Federico Dimarco and Leonardo Spinazzola all remaining in the recovery room. The Azzurri have won five of their last six away matches, scoring 2.00 goals per game and conceding just 0.50.
As key players return to the France starting XI, Home Win should be considered, alongside Over 1.5 goals and Both Teams to Score (BTTS landed in all five encounters).
This Nations League match will be played on Friday 2 October 2026 at 19:45.
What is our France vs Italy prediction?
Our prediction for this match: France 3 - 1 Italy
France vs Italy Betting Tips
- Correct Score: 3-1 @ 1000 Odds
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes @ -150 Odds
- Over / Under 4.5 Goals: Under 4.5 Goals @ -450 Odds
- Over / Under 3.5 Goals: Over 3.5 Goals @ 137 Odds
- Over / Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals @ -188 Odds
- Over / Under 1.5 Goals: Over 1.5 Goals @ -600 Odds
- Anytime Goalscorer: Ousmane Dembele @ -105 Odds
- First Goalscorer: Ousmane Dembele @ 375 Odds
- To be Booked: Alessandro Bastoni @ 175 Odds
- Asian Handicap: France -1 @ -134 Odds
- European Handicap: Italy +3 @ -450 Odds
- Shots on Target (Home): Over 7.5
- Shots on Target (Away): Over 2.5
- Shots on Target (Total): Over 9.5
- Total Corners: 9 - 11 @ 162 Odds
- Double Chance: 12 @ -600 Odds
- Draw No Bet: France to Win @ -550 Odds
- Half Time/Full Time: France to Win/France to Win @ 120 Odds
- Clean Sheet: France - No @ -200 Odds
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View OfferFrance Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwwwwwllww | 2.40 |
| Home | wwwwll | 2.00 |
| Away | wwww | 3.00 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 67% | 100% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| Scored | 2.20 | 2.50 | 1.75 |
| Conceded | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.25 |
| BTTS | 30% | 33% | 25% |
| Clean Sheets | 60% | 50% | 75% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 17% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 2.00 | 2.06 | 1.90 |
| Expected Goals Against | 0.99 | 0.99 | 1.00 |
Italy Team Form and Stats
| Form | Results | Points Per Game |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | wwwlwdwwlw | 2.20 |
| Home | wlwl | 1.50 |
| Away | wwdwww | 2.67 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% | 83% |
| Average Goals Per Game | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Scored | 1.80 | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Conceded | 0.90 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| BTTS | 40% | 25% | 50% |
| Clean Sheets | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to Score | 10% | 25% | 0% |
| Expected Goals | 1.85 | 1.92 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.30 | 1.35 | 1.26 |
France vs Italy Head to Head Statistics (H2H)
France (60%)
5 Matches
Italy (20%)
France vs Italy Past Results
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